An article posted in the Moscow Times is suggesting that bankers and bureaucrats are offering a disappointing outlook for 2010. Based on the Economic Development Ministry projections, the Russian economy could grow between 1.3 and 3.5% during 2010 (assuming the oil price remains above US $58).
"The Economic Development Ministry last week updated the three scenarios for its 2010 economic forecast, with pessimistic growth of 1.3 percent, a baseline scenario of 3.1 percent and possible growth of 3.5 percent if oil prices continue to stay above the $58 per barrel forecast used to calculate the 2010 budget."
While many believe these projections to be pessimistic, and certainly we don't want to ruin your holiday mood, the overall consensus among people in the business community was that 2010 will include slow but stable economic growth. And even the Russian President has a more opportunistic forecast for the Russian economy in 2010:
"And while the Economic Development Ministry may have submitted its best guesses, that hasn't stopped senior policy makers from offering their macro forecasts for 2010. A number of top officials, most recently President Dmitry Medvedev, have said the economy could grow 5 percent next year - although virtually all have attributed the figure to experts."
This is a typical question of whether the glass is half full or half empty. If to compare economic growth in 2009, this year should be a welcome return to stability and growth for Russia. Although expectations are low, expectations around the world are low and Russia is one of the first countries to climb out of recession.
So, as we go forward in the New Year we want to offer a glimmer of hope, a light at the end of the tunnel, and a road to economic growth and stability that is clearly seen by all.
A tip for this year will be to carefully watch the global oil prices and demand for energy around the world. If demand is growing, along with the oil price, we can expect the Russian economy to start gaining momentum and exceed the low predictions of government officials. As oil goes, Russia goes.
What is your projection for economic growth in Russia for 2010? Vote now on our RusKey Biz website Blog.
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